Future Climate Prediction Models

In Climate Analytics you can choose from different prediction models that use the scenarios described above. Some of the models available are:

Hadley Centre (HadCM3)

HadCM3 is a coupled climate model and stands for the “Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3”. The model has been used extensively for climate prediction, detection and attribution, and other climate sensitivity studies. It was developed in 1999 and was the first unified model climate configuration not to require flux adjustments (artificial adjustments applied to climate model simulations to prevent them drifting into unrealistic climate states).

 

HadCM3 has the capability to capture the time-dependent fingerprint of historical climate change in response to natural and anthropogenic forcings [Stott et al. 2000] which has made it a particularly useful tool in studies concerning the detection and attribution of past climate changes.

 

The atmospheric component has 19 levels with a horizontal resolution of 2.5 degrees of latitude by 3.75 degrees of longitude, which produces a global grid of 96 x 73 grid cells. This is equivalent to a surface resolution of about 417 km x 278 km at the Equator, reducing to 295 km x 278 km at 45 degrees of latitude. The oceanic component has 20 levels with a horizontal resolution of 1.25 x 1.25 degrees. At this resolution it is possible to represent important details in oceanic current structures. (source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/climate-models/hadcm3)

Centre for Climate System Research (CCSR-NIES)

CCSR-NIES is a high-quality numerical model which describes the dynamics of the climate system and the circulation of energy and materials, in order to predict future climate parameters. It was developed jointly by the Centre for Climate System Research (CCSR) at the University of Tokyo and the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) of Japan. (source: Sugata, S. (1997). Ability of the CCSR-NIES atmospheric general circulation model in the stratosphere Chapter 3 (CGER--1025-97). Japan)

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIRO)

CSIRO worked with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to produce the most comprehensive set of climate change projections for Australia ever released. The projections are presented for eight distinct regions of Australia, each of which will be affected differently by climate change. The projections are based on up to 40 global climate models that were driven by four greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions scenarios. Results have been prepared for 21 climate variables (both on the land and in the ocean) and for four 20-year time periods (centred on 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090). Their scientists use climate models that are based on established laws of physics. Confidence ratings for the projections are based on five lines of evidence:

 

  • model reliability at simulating relevant aspects of the current climate

  • consistency between models regarding the projected magnitude and direction of change

  • results from relevant downscaled projections

  • evidence for plausible processes driving the simulated changes, and

  • the level of consistency with emerging trends in the observations.

 

The projections draw on the full breadth of available data and peer-reviewed literature to provide a robust assessment of the potential future climate. (source:

https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/OandA/Areas/Oceans-and-climate/Climate-change-information)